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COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Turkey day #0 : 05-Feb-2020) : 31-Oct-2020
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Country : Turkey
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 05-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 31-Oct-2020 (day #269)
---> Today : 01-Nov-2020 (day #270)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.175%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.08, qc_inf : 0.05, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 11
From day #71 --> qc_0 : 0.05, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 71, Dtau : 11
From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.145, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 170, Dtau : 11
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.94969
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 12.96
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 92%, Nmax = 77,518,519
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 8.3 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 10,005
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 10,252
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 119
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (05-Feb-2020) : 73 (18-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 119
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 10-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 15,386
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 28-Mar-2020 (day #52)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #66)
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