******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Russia day #0 : 31-Jan-2020) : 31-Oct-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Russia
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 31-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 31-Oct-2020 (day #274)
---> Today : 01-Nov-2020 (day #275)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.265%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.076, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 23
From day #180 --> qc_0 : 0.076, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 23
From day #247 --> qc_0 : 0.1, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 267, Dtau : 10
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.76651
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.28
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 1,096,750,000
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.976
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 1.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 29,317
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 27,787
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 22
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (31-Jan-2020) : 134 (13-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 197
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 05-Jan-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 53,389
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-May-2020 (day #92)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 25-Jun-2020 (day #146)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 05-Sep-2020 (day #218)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 02-Nov-2020 (day #276)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************