****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Quebec day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 31-Oct-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Quebec Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 31-Oct-2020 (day #279) ---> Today : 01-Nov-2020 (day #280) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.3%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.35, qc_inf : 0.073, tau_ref : 40, Dtau : 10 From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.073, qc_inf : 0.047, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 3 From day #155 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.04, tau_ref : 185, Dtau : 10 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 250, Dtau : 3 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.74636 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.2 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 76%, Nmax = 6,476,190 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.9 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 29.7 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 6,877 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 6,246 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 809 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 100 (05-May-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 96 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 31-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) (without offset) : 8,107 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) (with offset) : 8,197 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 22-Apr-2020 (day #87) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 21-Apr-2020 (day #86) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************