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COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Mexico day #0 : 30-Jan-2020) : 31-Oct-2020
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Country : Mexico
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 30-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 31-Oct-2020 (day #275)
---> Today : 01-Nov-2020 (day #276)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.15%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.5, qc_inf : 0.081, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 22
From day #250 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.43351
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 6
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 105,166,667
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.08
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 58.3 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 95,438
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 91,753
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 756
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (30-Jan-2020) : 159 (07-Jul-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 620
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 04-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 136,583
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 07-Apr-2020 (day #68)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 24-Apr-2020 (day #85)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 26-May-2020 (day #117)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 14-Jun-2020 (day #136)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 30-Jun-2020 (day #152)
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