****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Lebanon day #0 : 23-Jan-2020) : 31-Oct-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Lebanon Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 23-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 31-Oct-2020 (day #282) ---> Today : 01-Nov-2020 (day #283) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.15%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.45, qc_inf : 0.019, tau_ref : 17, Dtau : 13 From day #68 --> qc_0 : 0.08, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 195, Dtau : 5 From day #227 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 250, Dtau : 12 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.57179 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.4 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 5,377,778 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.982 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 12.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 738 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 637 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 112 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (23-Jan-2020) : 70 (02-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 1 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 18 (02-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 28-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 1,699 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 19-Aug-2020 (day #209) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 15-Nov-2020 (day #297) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #94 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 76 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 0 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 0 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 26 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 24 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************