****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Iran day #0 : 04-Jan-2020) : 31-Oct-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Iran Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 04-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 31-Oct-2020 (day #301) ---> Today : 01-Nov-2020 (day #302) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.14%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.58, qc_inf : 0.068, tau_ref : 27, Dtau : 8 From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.113, qc_inf : 0.064, tau_ref : 155, Dtau : 25 From day #213 --> qc_0 : 0.096, qc_inf : 0.096, tau_ref : 260, Dtau : 12 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95316 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 6.96 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 86%, Nmax = 70,218,391 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.152 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 45.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 34,669 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 34,864 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 423 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (04-Jan-2020) : 82 (26-Mar-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 144 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 09-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 59,952 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 02-Mar-2020 (day #58) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 15-Mar-2020 (day #71) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 24-Jun-2020 (day #172) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 20-Aug-2020 (day #229) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 17-Oct-2020 (day #287) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************