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COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Germany day #0 : 02-Jan-2020) : 31-Oct-2020
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Country : Germany
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 02-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 31-Oct-2020 (day #303)
---> Today : 01-Nov-2020 (day #304)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.35%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.01, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 2
From day #30 --> qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 44, Dtau : 10
From day #130 --> qc_0 : 0.05, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
From day #190 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 220, Dtau : 10
From day #255 --> qc_0 : 0.14, qc_inf : 0.14, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.72427
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.4
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 73,030,952
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.68
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 8.1 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 10,633
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 10,483
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 128
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (02-Jan-2020) : 36 (07-Feb-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 0
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 07-Dec-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 35,163
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 21-Mar-2020 (day #79)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #91)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 19-Oct-2020 (day #291)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 26-Nov-2020 (day #329)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 04-Dec-2020 (day #337)
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