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******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 19-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 (tau_f = 20 days) : 24-Jan-2020) : 19-Jan-2021
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : France
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 19-Jan-2021 (day #361)
---> Today : 19-Jan-2021 (day #362)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) :
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 39, Dtau : 7
From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2
From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 4
From day #245 --> qc_0 : 0.114, qc_inf : 0.067, tau_ref : 280, Dtau : 2
From day #310 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.78836
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.28
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 54,310,606
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.08
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 69,038
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 71,342
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,030
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 74 (07-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 544
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 22 (07-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 17-Feb-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 56,025
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 78,351
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 12-Mar-2020 (day #48)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 01-Jul-2020 (day #159)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 14-Nov-2020 (day #295)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 12-Mar-2020 (day #48)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 06-Apr-2020 (day #73)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 17-Apr-2020 (day #84)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 14-Jun-2020 (day #142)
---------
Day of the end of the first lockdown (11-May-2020) : #108
Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 10326
Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 113
Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 18079
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994
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covid19
--> Last recorded date : 18-Jan-2021
Download lastest database ? (0 or RETURN no, 1 yes) 1
COVID-19 database successfuly updated
COVID-19 R-database successfuly loaded
OWID database successfuly loaded
Which day is displayed : 0 or RETURN -> last day, n ->day n before last day, [0:m] -> m days from day 0)
Write automatically data in file ? (0 or RETURN no, 1 yes) 1
***************************************************************************
******************************* COVID-19 **********************************
***************************************************************************
Israel :
---------------
nr(572-i0) = 565629 + 4080*1i;nv(572-i0) = NaN;nvac(572-i0) = 2695781;%1/19/21, Israel
Senegal :
---------------
nr(572-i0) = 23392 + 536*1i;nv(572-i0) = NaN;nvac(572-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Senegal
Turkey :
---------------
nr(572-i0) = 2399781 + 24328*1i;nv(572-i0) = NaN;nvac(572-i0) = 950635;%1/19/21, Turkey
Russia :
---------------
nr(572-i0) = 3574330 + 65632*1i;nv(572-i0) = NaN;nvac(572-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Russia
Arizona :
---------------
nr(574-i0) = 685699 + 11266*1i;%1/19/21, Arizona
Florida :
---------------
nr(574-i0) = 403932 + 5852*1i;%1/19/21, Florida
California :
---------------
nr(574-i0) = 366092 + 3650*1i;%1/19/21, California
Mexico :
---------------
nr(464-i0) = 1668396 + 142832*1i;nv(464-i0) = NaN;nvac(464-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Mexico
India :
---------------
nr(464-i0) = 10595639 + 152718*1i;nv(464-i0) = NaN;nvac(464-i0) = 454049;%1/19/21, India
Brazil :
---------------
nr(464-i0) = 8573864 + 211491*1i;nv(464-i0) = NaN;nvac(464-i0) = 6815;%1/19/21, Brazil
Belgium :
---------------
nr(563-i0) = 681250 + 20554*1i;nv(563-i0) = NaN;nvac(563-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Belgium
Poland :
---------------
nr(563-i0) = 1443804 + 33698*1i;nv(563-i0) = NaN;nvac(563-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Poland
Lebanon :
---------------
nr(437-i0) = 260315 + 2020*1i;nv(437-i0) = NaN;nvac(437-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Lebanon
Netherlands :
---------------
nr(437-i0) = 921580 + 13162*1i;nv(437-i0) = NaN;nvac(437-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Netherlands
United Kingdom :
---------------
nr(564-i0) = 3466849 + 91470*1i;nv(564-i0) = NaN;nvac(564-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, United Kingdom
Quebec (Canada) :
---------------
nr(345-i0) = 245734 + 9142*1i;nv(345-i0) = NaN;nvac(345-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Quebec
France :
---------------
nr(438-i0) = 2931050 + 70963*1i;%1/19/21, France
Switzerland :
---------------
nr(337-i0) = 502191 + 8859*1i;nv(337-i0) = NaN;nvac(337-i0) = 110000;%1/19/21, switzerland
Germany :
---------------
nr(563-i0) = 2071615 + 48997*1i;nv(563-i0) = NaN;nvac(563-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Germany
Sweden :
---------------
nr(440-i0) = 533265 + 10591*1i;nv(440-i0) = NaN;nvac(440-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Sweden
Iran :
---------------
nr(441-i0) = 1342134 + 56973*1i;nv(441-i0) = NaN;nvac(441-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Iran
Italy :
---------------
nr(366-i0) = 2400598 + 83157*1i;nv(366-i0) = NaN;nvac(366-i0) = 1197913;%1/19/21, Italy
Spain :
---------------
nr(353-i0) = 2370742 + 54173*1i;nv(353-i0) = NaN;nvac(353-i0) = 966097;%1/19/21, Spain
China :
---------------
nr(467-i0) = 88557 + 4635*1i;nv(467-i0) = NaN;nvac(467-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, China
South-Korea :
---------------
nr(462-i0) = 73518 + 1300*1i;nv(462-i0) = NaN;nvac(462-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, South-Korea
USA :
---------------
nr(342-i0) = 24246830 + 401553*1i;nv(342-i0) = NaN;nvac(342-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, USA
***************************************************************************
Mean global fatality rate (no Iran, no Italy, no France) : 45.8%
Doubling time for cumulative number of deaths : 2.47±0.75 days
49634+285
ans =
49919
49634+285+60
ans =
49979
49634+285+60+42
ans =
50021
49634+285+60+42+331
ans =
50352
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Quebec day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 26-Jan-2020) : 19-Jan-2021
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Country : Quebec
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 19-Jan-2021 (day #359)
---> Today : 20-Jan-2021 (day #360)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.3%) :
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.35, qc_inf : 0.072, tau_ref : 40, Dtau : 10
From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.073, qc_inf : 0.047, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 3
From day #155 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.03, tau_ref : 185, Dtau : 10
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.118, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 3
From day #265 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.092, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 1
From day #340 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #342 --> qc_0 : 0.06, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.73595
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.2
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 76%, Nmax = 6,476,190
Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.72
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 44 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 9,544
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 9,142
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,123
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 99 (04-May-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 92
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 19-Feb-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 11,259
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 11,349
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 22-Apr-2020 (day #87)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 21-Apr-2020 (day #86)
******************************************************************************************
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outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Manaus day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 11-Feb-2020) : 19-Jan-2021
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Country : Manaus
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 19-Jan-2021 (day #343)
---> Today : 20-Jan-2021 (day #344)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.17%) :
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.465, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 33, Dtau : 5
From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #206 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 230, Dtau : 2
From day #237 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #280 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.12, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.85334
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.58
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 82%, Nmax = 1,756,487
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.44
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 279.8 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 4,271
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 4,273
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,996
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Feb-2020) : 74 (25-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 62
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 07-Mar-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 22,605
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 29-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 17-Feb-2021 (day #372)
******************************************************************************************
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outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (Manaus day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 11-Feb-2020) : 19-Jan-2021
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Manaus
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 19-Jan-2021 (day #343)
---> Today : 20-Jan-2021 (day #344)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.17%) :
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.465, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 33, Dtau : 5
From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #206 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 230, Dtau : 2
From day #237 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.58352
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.58
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 82%, Nmax = 1,756,487
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 103.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 3,510
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 4,273
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,640
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Feb-2020) : 74 (25-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 62
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 07-Mar-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 3,896
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #60)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 29-Apr-2020 (day #78)
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
{Index in position 1 exceeds array bounds (must not exceed 637).
Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.IconGenerator/extractRGBAFromSnapshot (line 167)
iconi = rot90((iconsMap(rowStart:rowEnd, colStart:colEnd, :,:)),-1);
Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.IconGenerator/getIconRGBA (line 63)
rgba(legendableInd) = obj.extractRGBAFromSnapshot(numel(legKids));
Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.BreadcrumbsHelper.getTreeData (line 78)
RGBA = iconGenerator.getIconRGBA(hObjs);
Error in internal.matlab.inspector.GraphicsMetaData/getCurrentData (line 70)
d.TreeData = matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.BreadcrumbsHelper.getTreeData(this.RefObject);
Error in internal.matlab.inspector.GraphicsMetaData (line 25)
data = this.getCurrentData();
Error in internal.matlab.inspector.Inspector/inspect (line 198)
DataModel.MetaDataHandler = internal.matlab.inspector.GraphicsMetaData(objectsToInspect);
Error in internal.matlab.inspector.peer.PeerInspectorManager/inspect (line 283)
peerInspectorDocument = this.inspect@internal.matlab.inspector.Inspector(objs, ...
Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.PropertyInspectorManager/inspectObj (line 561)
inspectorDocument = inspectorDocumentModel.inspect(obj,...
Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.PropertyInspectorManager/showInspector (line 351)
this.inspectObj(objToInspect);
Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.propertyinspector (line 111)
hInspectorMgnr.showInspector(hObjs);
Error in editmenufcn (line 79)
matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.propertyinspector('show',ax);
}
Error while evaluating Menu Callback.
outbreak0
---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 (tau_f = 20 days) : 24-Jan-2020) : 19-Jan-2021
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Country : France
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 19-Jan-2021 (day #361)
---> Today : 20-Jan-2021 (day #362)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) :
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 39, Dtau : 7
From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2
From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 4
From day #245 --> qc_0 : 0.114, qc_inf : 0.067, tau_ref : 280, Dtau : 2
From day #310 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.78836
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.28
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 54,310,606
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.08
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.9 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 69,038
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 71,342
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,030
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 74 (07-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 544
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 22 (07-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 17-Feb-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 56,025
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 78,351
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 12-Mar-2020 (day #48)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 01-Jul-2020 (day #159)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 14-Nov-2020 (day #295)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 12-Mar-2020 (day #48)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 06-Apr-2020 (day #73)
Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 17-Apr-2020 (day #84)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 14-Jun-2020 (day #142)
---------
Day of the end of the first lockdown (11-May-2020) : #108
Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 10326
Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 113
Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 18079
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
outbreak0