****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 19-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 (tau_f = 20 days) : 24-Jan-2020) : 19-Jan-2021 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : France Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 19-Jan-2021 (day #361) ---> Today : 19-Jan-2021 (day #362) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 39, Dtau : 7 From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 4 From day #245 --> qc_0 : 0.114, qc_inf : 0.067, tau_ref : 280, Dtau : 2 From day #310 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.78836 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.28 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 54,310,606 Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.08 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 69,038 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 71,342 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,030 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 74 (07-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 544 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 22 (07-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 17-Feb-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 56,025 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 78,351 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 12-Mar-2020 (day #48) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 01-Jul-2020 (day #159) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 14-Nov-2020 (day #295) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 12-Mar-2020 (day #48) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 06-Apr-2020 (day #73) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 17-Apr-2020 (day #84) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 14-Jun-2020 (day #142) --------- Day of the end of the first lockdown (11-May-2020) : #108 Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 10326 Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 113 Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 18079 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** covid19 --> Last recorded date : 18-Jan-2021 Download lastest database ? (0 or RETURN no, 1 yes) 1 COVID-19 database successfuly updated COVID-19 R-database successfuly loaded OWID database successfuly loaded Which day is displayed : 0 or RETURN -> last day, n ->day n before last day, [0:m] -> m days from day 0) Write automatically data in file ? (0 or RETURN no, 1 yes) 1 *************************************************************************** ******************************* COVID-19 ********************************** *************************************************************************** Israel : --------------- nr(572-i0) = 565629 + 4080*1i;nv(572-i0) = NaN;nvac(572-i0) = 2695781;%1/19/21, Israel Senegal : --------------- nr(572-i0) = 23392 + 536*1i;nv(572-i0) = NaN;nvac(572-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Senegal Turkey : --------------- nr(572-i0) = 2399781 + 24328*1i;nv(572-i0) = NaN;nvac(572-i0) = 950635;%1/19/21, Turkey Russia : --------------- nr(572-i0) = 3574330 + 65632*1i;nv(572-i0) = NaN;nvac(572-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Russia Arizona : --------------- nr(574-i0) = 685699 + 11266*1i;%1/19/21, Arizona Florida : --------------- nr(574-i0) = 403932 + 5852*1i;%1/19/21, Florida California : --------------- nr(574-i0) = 366092 + 3650*1i;%1/19/21, California Mexico : --------------- nr(464-i0) = 1668396 + 142832*1i;nv(464-i0) = NaN;nvac(464-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Mexico India : --------------- nr(464-i0) = 10595639 + 152718*1i;nv(464-i0) = NaN;nvac(464-i0) = 454049;%1/19/21, India Brazil : --------------- nr(464-i0) = 8573864 + 211491*1i;nv(464-i0) = NaN;nvac(464-i0) = 6815;%1/19/21, Brazil Belgium : --------------- nr(563-i0) = 681250 + 20554*1i;nv(563-i0) = NaN;nvac(563-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Belgium Poland : --------------- nr(563-i0) = 1443804 + 33698*1i;nv(563-i0) = NaN;nvac(563-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Poland Lebanon : --------------- nr(437-i0) = 260315 + 2020*1i;nv(437-i0) = NaN;nvac(437-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Lebanon Netherlands : --------------- nr(437-i0) = 921580 + 13162*1i;nv(437-i0) = NaN;nvac(437-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Netherlands United Kingdom : --------------- nr(564-i0) = 3466849 + 91470*1i;nv(564-i0) = NaN;nvac(564-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, United Kingdom Quebec (Canada) : --------------- nr(345-i0) = 245734 + 9142*1i;nv(345-i0) = NaN;nvac(345-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Quebec France : --------------- nr(438-i0) = 2931050 + 70963*1i;%1/19/21, France Switzerland : --------------- nr(337-i0) = 502191 + 8859*1i;nv(337-i0) = NaN;nvac(337-i0) = 110000;%1/19/21, switzerland Germany : --------------- nr(563-i0) = 2071615 + 48997*1i;nv(563-i0) = NaN;nvac(563-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Germany Sweden : --------------- nr(440-i0) = 533265 + 10591*1i;nv(440-i0) = NaN;nvac(440-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Sweden Iran : --------------- nr(441-i0) = 1342134 + 56973*1i;nv(441-i0) = NaN;nvac(441-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, Iran Italy : --------------- nr(366-i0) = 2400598 + 83157*1i;nv(366-i0) = NaN;nvac(366-i0) = 1197913;%1/19/21, Italy Spain : --------------- nr(353-i0) = 2370742 + 54173*1i;nv(353-i0) = NaN;nvac(353-i0) = 966097;%1/19/21, Spain China : --------------- nr(467-i0) = 88557 + 4635*1i;nv(467-i0) = NaN;nvac(467-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, China South-Korea : --------------- nr(462-i0) = 73518 + 1300*1i;nv(462-i0) = NaN;nvac(462-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, South-Korea USA : --------------- nr(342-i0) = 24246830 + 401553*1i;nv(342-i0) = NaN;nvac(342-i0) = NaN;%1/19/21, USA *************************************************************************** Mean global fatality rate (no Iran, no Italy, no France) : 45.8% Doubling time for cumulative number of deaths : 2.47±0.75 days 49634+285 ans = 49919 49634+285+60 ans = 49979 49634+285+60+42 ans = 50021 49634+285+60+42+331 ans = 50352 outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Quebec day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 26-Jan-2020) : 19-Jan-2021 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Quebec Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 19-Jan-2021 (day #359) ---> Today : 20-Jan-2021 (day #360) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.3%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.35, qc_inf : 0.072, tau_ref : 40, Dtau : 10 From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.073, qc_inf : 0.047, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 3 From day #155 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.03, tau_ref : 185, Dtau : 10 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.118, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 3 From day #265 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.092, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 1 From day #340 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 From day #342 --> qc_0 : 0.06, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.73595 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.2 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 76%, Nmax = 6,476,190 Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.72 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 44 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 9,544 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 9,142 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,123 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 99 (04-May-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 92 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 19-Feb-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 11,259 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 11,349 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 22-Apr-2020 (day #87) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 21-Apr-2020 (day #86) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Manaus day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 11-Feb-2020) : 19-Jan-2021 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Manaus Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 19-Jan-2021 (day #343) ---> Today : 20-Jan-2021 (day #344) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.17%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.465, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 33, Dtau : 5 From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 From day #206 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 230, Dtau : 2 From day #237 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 From day #280 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.12, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.85334 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.58 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 82%, Nmax = 1,756,487 Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.44 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 279.8 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 4,271 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 4,273 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,996 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Feb-2020) : 74 (25-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 62 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 07-Mar-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 22,605 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #60) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 29-Apr-2020 (day #78) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 17-Feb-2021 (day #372) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Manaus day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 11-Feb-2020) : 19-Jan-2021 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Manaus Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 11-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 19-Jan-2021 (day #343) ---> Today : 20-Jan-2021 (day #344) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.17%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.465, qc_inf : 0.06, tau_ref : 33, Dtau : 5 From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 From day #206 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 230, Dtau : 2 From day #237 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.58352 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.58 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 82%, Nmax = 1,756,487 Effective reproduction number (R) : 1 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 103.2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 3,510 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 4,273 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,640 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (11-Feb-2020) : 74 (25-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 62 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 07-Mar-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 3,896 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #60) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 29-Apr-2020 (day #78) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** {Index in position 1 exceeds array bounds (must not exceed 637). Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.IconGenerator/extractRGBAFromSnapshot (line 167) iconi = rot90((iconsMap(rowStart:rowEnd, colStart:colEnd, :,:)),-1); Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.IconGenerator/getIconRGBA (line 63) rgba(legendableInd) = obj.extractRGBAFromSnapshot(numel(legKids)); Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.BreadcrumbsHelper.getTreeData (line 78) RGBA = iconGenerator.getIconRGBA(hObjs); Error in internal.matlab.inspector.GraphicsMetaData/getCurrentData (line 70) d.TreeData = matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.BreadcrumbsHelper.getTreeData(this.RefObject); Error in internal.matlab.inspector.GraphicsMetaData (line 25) data = this.getCurrentData(); Error in internal.matlab.inspector.Inspector/inspect (line 198) DataModel.MetaDataHandler = internal.matlab.inspector.GraphicsMetaData(objectsToInspect); Error in internal.matlab.inspector.peer.PeerInspectorManager/inspect (line 283) peerInspectorDocument = this.inspect@internal.matlab.inspector.Inspector(objs, ... Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.PropertyInspectorManager/inspectObj (line 561) inspectorDocument = inspectorDocumentModel.inspect(obj,... Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.PropertyInspectorManager/showInspector (line 351) this.inspectObj(objToInspect); Error in matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.propertyinspector (line 111) hInspectorMgnr.showInspector(hObjs); Error in editmenufcn (line 79) matlab.graphics.internal.propertyinspector.propertyinspector('show',ax); } Error while evaluating Menu Callback. outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 (tau_f = 20 days) : 24-Jan-2020) : 19-Jan-2021 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : France Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 19-Jan-2021 (day #361) ---> Today : 20-Jan-2021 (day #362) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 39, Dtau : 7 From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 4 From day #245 --> qc_0 : 0.114, qc_inf : 0.067, tau_ref : 280, Dtau : 2 From day #310 --> qc_0 : 0.085, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.78836 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.28 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 54,310,606 Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.08 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 69,038 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 71,342 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,030 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (24-Jan-2020) : 74 (07-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 544 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 22 (07-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 17-Feb-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 56,025 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 78,351 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 12-Mar-2020 (day #48) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Apr-2020 (day #78) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 01-Jul-2020 (day #159) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 14-Nov-2020 (day #295) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 12-Mar-2020 (day #48) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 22-Mar-2020 (day #58) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 06-Apr-2020 (day #73) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 17-Apr-2020 (day #84) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 14-Jun-2020 (day #142) --------- Day of the end of the first lockdown (11-May-2020) : #108 Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 10326 Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 113 Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 18079 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0