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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Brazil day #0 : 01-Feb-2020) : 12-Aug-2020
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Country : Brazil
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 01-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Aug-2020 (day #193)
---> Today : 13-Aug-2020 (day #194)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.82, qc_inf : 0.084, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 14
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.67452
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.66
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 191,206,379
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.092
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 35 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 106,943
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 104,201
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 507
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (01-Feb-2020) : 310 (07-Dec-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 1312
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 07-Dec-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 246,656
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 27-Mar-2020 (day #55)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 08-Apr-2020 (day #67)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-May-2020 (day #90)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-May-2020 (day #104)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 27-May-2020 (day #116)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 05-Aug-2020 (day #186)
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