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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Belgium day #0 : 01-Feb-2020) : 12-Aug-2020
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Country : Belgium
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 01-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Aug-2020 (day #193)
---> Today : 13-Aug-2020 (day #194)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.31%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.73, qc_inf : 0.056, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 6
From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.13, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.84058
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.49
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 10,252,413
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.69
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 29.1 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 9,694
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 9,900
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 846
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (01-Feb-2020) : 69 (10-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 275
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (18-Mar-2020) : 23 (10-Apr-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 289 days until 16-Nov-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #289) : 33,511
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 22-Mar-2020 (day #50)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 31-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Sep-2020 (day #214)
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Day of the end of the lockdown (03-May-2020) : #92
Estimated number of daily infections (03-May-2020) : 6507
Estimated number of daily deaths (03-May-2020) : 109
Observed number of daily fatalities (03-May-2020) : 79
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (03-May-2020) : 7765
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (03-May-2020) : 7844
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