****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Jun-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option c (Spain) : 29-Jun-2020 ---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_Spain.mat ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 22-Feb-2020 --------- ---> Last available day in database : 29-Jun-2020 ---> Today : 30-Jun-2020 (day 128 of the outbreak) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 2.5%) : qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.058, tau_ref : 27, Dtau : 5 --------- Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.5644 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 3.84 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 74%, Nmax = 34,464,583 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.371 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 3.4 (%) --------- Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 29,296 Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 28,346 --------- Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 38 (31-Mar-2020) Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 38 (31-Mar-2020) Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 11 days Duration of the outbreak : 260 days until 08-Nov-2020 Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 29,379 Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 29,379 --------- Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 12-Mar-2020 Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 19-Mar-2020 Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 31-Mar-2020 Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 13-Apr-2020 --------- Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 12-Mar-2020 Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 19-Mar-2020 Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 31-Mar-2020 Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 13-Apr-2020 --------- Number of days to reach the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : -65 Number of daily contaminations (26-Apr-2020) : 10752 Number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 269 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************