******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Jun-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option c (Iran) : 29-Jun-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_Iran.mat
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Iran
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 16-Feb-2020
---------
---> Last available day in database : 29-Jun-2020
---> Today : 30-Jun-2020 (day 134 of the outbreak)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 3%) : qc_0 : 0.93, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 13, Dtau : 5
---------
Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.52693
---------
Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.952
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 68,223,118
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.531
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 0.5 (%)
---------
Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 11,016
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 10,670
---------
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 37 (24-Mar-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 37 (24-Mar-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 24 days
Duration of the outbreak larger than 320 days (01-Jan-2021)
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 18,537
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 18,537
---------
Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 15-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 14-Jun-2020
---------
Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 15-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 14-Jun-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************