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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Spain) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_f_Spain.mat
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Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 25-Feb-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 140 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (Low fatality rate scenario : 0.7%) : qc_0 : 0.85, qc_inf : 0.066, tau_ref : 21, Dtau : 5
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.59189
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.44
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 82%, Nmax = 38,033,824
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.422
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 11.1 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 29,466
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 632.3176
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 28,409
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 35 (31-Mar-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 35 (31-Mar-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 14 days
Duration of the outbreak : 318 days until 08-Jan-2021
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 29,563
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 29,563
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 13-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 19-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 01-Apr-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 16-Apr-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 13-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 19-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 01-Apr-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 16-Apr-2020
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Number of days to reach the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : -80
Number of daily contaminations (26-Apr-2020) : 44594
Number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 312
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