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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Italy) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_f_Italy.mat
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Country : Italy
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 8-Feb-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 157 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (Low fatality rate scenario : 0.7%) : qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.067, tau_ref : 26, Dtau : 9
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95465
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 3.84
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 74%, Nmax = 43,635,417
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.429
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 11.1 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 34,188
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 579.4576
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 34,984
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 52 (31-Mar-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 52 (31-Mar-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 26 days
Duration of the outbreak larger than 320 days (24-Dec-2020)
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 34,040
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 34,322
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 03-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 11-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 28-Mar-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 11-Apr-2020
Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 07-May-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 03-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 11-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 28-Mar-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 11-Apr-2020
Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 05-May-2020
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Number of days to reach the end of the lockdown (4-May-2020) : -72
Number of daily contaminations (4-May-2020) : 34058
Number of daily deaths (4-May-2020) : 238
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