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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Iran) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_f_Iran.mat
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Country : Iran
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 08-Feb-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 157 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (Low fatality rate scenario : 0.7%) : qc_0 : 0.58, qc_inf : 0.086, tau_ref : 24, Dtau : 4
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.33443
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 3.712
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 73%, Nmax = 59,909,483
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.55
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 3.1 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 12,976
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 158.2439
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 13,211
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 126 (13-Jun-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 126 (13-Jun-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 102 days
Duration of the outbreak larger than 320 days (24-Dec-2020)
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 26,110
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 26,110
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 02-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 16-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 15-Jun-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 26-Sep-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 02-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 16-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 15-Jun-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 26-Sep-2020
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