****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (India) : 14-Jul-2020 ---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_f_India.mat ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : India Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 29-Feb-2020 --------- ---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020 ---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 136 of the outbreak) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Initial simulations parameters (Low fatality rate scenario : 0.7%) : qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.095, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 12 --------- Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.57615 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.48 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 78%, Nmax = 1,050,991,071 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.608 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 0.3 (%) --------- Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 25,502 Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 18.8485 Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 24,309 --------- Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 320 (14-Jan-2021) Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 320 (14-Jan-2021) Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 317 days Duration of the outbreak larger than 320 days (14-Jan-2021) Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 673,745 Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 673,745 --------- Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 29-Mar-2020 Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 18-Apr-2020 Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 07-Jun-2020 Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 03-Jul-2020 Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 21-Jul-2020 Threashold 100000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 17-Sep-2020 --------- Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 29-Mar-2020 Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 18-Apr-2020 Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 07-Jun-2020 Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 03-Jul-2020 Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 21-Jul-2020 Threashold 100000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 17-Sep-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************