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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (California) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_f_California.mat
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Country : California
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 2-Mar-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 134 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (Low fatality rate scenario : 0.7%) : qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.092, tau_ref : 7, Dtau : 7
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.33466
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.48
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 78%, Nmax = 30,690,804
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.589
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 0.3 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 628
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 15.8947
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 624
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 320 (16-Jan-2021)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 320 (16-Jan-2021)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 313 days
Duration of the outbreak larger than 320 days (16-Jan-2021)
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 8,830
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 8,830
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 27-Apr-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 10-Aug-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 27-Apr-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 10-Aug-2020
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