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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Brazil) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_f_Brazil.mat
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Country : Brazil
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 06-Mar-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 130 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (Low fatality rate scenario : 0.7%) : qc_0 : 1, qc_inf : 0.092, tau_ref : 4, Dtau : 10
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.75895
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 6.4
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 84%, Nmax = 178,031,250
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.589
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 6.2 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 77,231
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 366.0237
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 74,133
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 153 (06-Aug-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 153 (06-Aug-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 149 days
Duration of the outbreak larger than 320 days (20-Jan-2021)
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 227,216
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 227,216
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 06-Apr-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 30-Apr-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 16-May-2020
Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 29-May-2020
Threashold 100000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 01-Aug-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 06-Apr-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 30-Apr-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 16-May-2020
Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 29-May-2020
Threashold 100000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 01-Aug-2020
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