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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Belgium) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_f_Belgium.mat
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Country : Belgium
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 29-Feb-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 136 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (Low fatality rate scenario : 0.7%) : qc_0 : 0.73, qc_inf : 0.049, tau_ref : 18, Dtau : 10
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.84014
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.672
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 79%, Nmax = 9,007,089
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.314
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 15.1 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 9,516
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 830.3665
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 9,787
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 43 (12-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 43 (12-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 25 days
Duration of the outbreak : 193 days until 09-Sep-2020
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 9,517
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 9,517
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 22-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 01-Apr-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 22-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 01-Apr-2020
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Number of days to reach the end of the lockdown (03-May-2020) : -73
Number of daily contaminations (03-May-2020) : 15105
Number of daily deaths (03-May-2020) : 106
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