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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Arizona) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_f_Arizona.mat
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Country : Arizona
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 5-Mar-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 131 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (Low fatality rate scenario : 0.7%) : qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.099, tau_ref : 14, Dtau : 4
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.35821
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.48
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 78%, Nmax = 5,655,000
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.634
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 5.8 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 2,289
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 314.4231
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 2,337
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 182 (03-Sep-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 182 (03-Sep-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 168 days
Duration of the outbreak larger than 320 days (19-Jan-2021)
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 11,309
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 11,309
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 11-Apr-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 10-Jun-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 09-Nov-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 11-Apr-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 10-Jun-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 09-Nov-2020
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