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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option c (USA) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_USA.mat
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Country : USA
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 13-Feb-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 152 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 1.5%) : qc_0 : 0.385, qc_inf : 0.076, tau_ref + t_offset: 31 + 17, Dtau : 5
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.71269
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.8
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 79%, Nmax = 258,875,000
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.486
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 3.6 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 140,335
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 429.159
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 136,466
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 61 (14-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 61 (14-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 13 days
Duration of the outbreak larger than 320 days (29-Dec-2020)
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 158,080
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 158,080
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 16-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 24-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 03-Apr-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020
Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 13-Apr-2020
Threashold 100000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 21-May-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 16-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 24-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 03-Apr-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020
Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 13-Apr-2020
Threashold 100000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 21-May-2020
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