******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option c (UK) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_UK.mat
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : UK
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 30-Jan-2020
---------
---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 166 of the outbreak)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 1%) : qc_0 : 0.51, qc_inf : 0.072, tau_ref + t_offset: 32 + 22, Dtau : 7
---------
Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.818
---------
Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.48
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 78%, Nmax = 51,966,964
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.461
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 8.1 (%)
---------
Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 46,118
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 689.3572
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 44,968
---------
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 74 (13-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 74 (13-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 20 days
Duration of the outbreak larger than 320 days (15-Dec-2020)
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 43,386
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 47,386
---------
Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 17-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 25-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 22-Apr-2020
Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 08-May-2020
---------
Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 17-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 25-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 22-Apr-2020
Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 01-May-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************