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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option c (Switzerland) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_Switzerland.mat
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Country : Switzerland
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 23-Feb-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 142 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 2%) : qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.04, tau_ref : 11, Dtau : 13
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.85791
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 3.84
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 74%, Nmax = 6,212,500
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.256
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 1.6 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 1,968
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 234.2857
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 1,968
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 44 (07-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 44 (07-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 33 days
Duration of the outbreak : 162 days until 03-Aug-2020
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 1,968
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 1,968
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 20-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 20-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020
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Number of days to reach the end of the lockdown (27-Apr-2020) : -79
Number of daily contaminations (27-Apr-2020) : 1181
Number of daily deaths (27-Apr-2020) : 24
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