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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option c (South-Korea) : 14-Jul-2020
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Country : South-Korea
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 25-Jan-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 171 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 0.7%) : qc_0 : 1.05, qc_inf : 0.01, tau_ref + t_offset: 4 + 24, Dtau : 4.5
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : -0.47328
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 3.2
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 69%, Nmax = 35,550,625
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.064
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 0 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 59
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1.141
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 289
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 38 (03-Mar-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 38 (03-Mar-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 10 days
Duration of the outbreak : 84 days until 18-Apr-2020
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 59
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 59
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