******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option c (Quebec) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_Quebec.mat
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Quebec
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 3-March-2020
---------
---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 133 of the outbreak)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 1%) : qc_0 : 0.38, qc_inf : 0.076, tau_ref : 34, Dtau : 9
---------
Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.6554
---------
Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 2.432
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 59%, Nmax = 5,004,934
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.486
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 11.2 (%)
---------
Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 5,687
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 669.0588
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 5,633
---------
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 59 (01-May-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 59 (01-May-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 25 days
Duration of the outbreak larger than 320 days (17-Jan-2021)
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 6,008
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 6,098
---------
Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 05-Apr-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 22-Apr-2020
---------
Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 05-Apr-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 21-Apr-2020
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************