****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option c (Netherlands) : 14-Jul-2020 ---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_Netherlands.mat ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Netherlands Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Feb-2020 --------- ---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020 ---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 141 of the outbreak) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 0.5%) : qc_0 : 0.91, qc_inf : 0.059, tau_ref : 6, Dtau : 11 --------- Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.85447 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.824 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 14,246,703 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.378 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 8.5 (%) --------- Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 6,033 Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 350.7558 Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 6,135 --------- Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 45 (09-Apr-2020) Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 45 (09-Apr-2020) Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 39 days Duration of the outbreak : 263 days until 13-Nov-2020 Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 6,044 Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 6,044 --------- Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 18-Mar-2020 Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 30-Mar-2020 --------- Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 18-Mar-2020 Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 30-Mar-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************