****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option c (Lebanon) : 14-Jul-2020 ---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_Lebanon.mat ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Lebanon Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 24-Feb-2020 --------- ---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020 ---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 141 of the outbreak) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 0.7%) : qc_0 : 0.45, qc_inf : 0, tau_ref : 11, Dtau : 14 --------- Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.10113 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 2.88 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 65%, Nmax = 4,308,333 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 0.1 (%) --------- Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 24 Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 3.6364 Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 37 --------- Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 35 (30-Mar-2020) Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 35 (30-Mar-2020) Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 24 days Duration of the outbreak : 82 days until 16-May-2020 Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 24 Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 24 --------- --------- --------- Number of days to reach the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : -80 Number of daily contaminations (26-Apr-2020) : 4 Number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 0 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************