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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option c (Iran) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_Iran.mat
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Country : Iran
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 16-Feb-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 149 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 3%) : qc_0 : 0.93, qc_inf : 0.088, tau_ref : 12, Dtau : 5
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.37215
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.952
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 68,223,118
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.563
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 0.6 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 12,801
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 156.1098
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 13,211
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 320 (01-Jan-2021)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 320 (01-Jan-2021)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 308 days
Duration of the outbreak larger than 320 days (01-Jan-2021)
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 37,562
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 37,562
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 04-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 19-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 19-Jun-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 07-Sep-2020
Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 14-Nov-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 04-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 19-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 19-Jun-2020
Threashold 20000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 07-Sep-2020
Threashold 30000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 14-Nov-2020
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