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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option c (Germany) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_Germany.mat
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Country : Germany
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 25-Jan-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 171 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 0.1%) : qc_0 : 0.73, qc_inf : 0.057, tau_ref + t_offset: 13 + 30, Dtau : 12
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.68205
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.12
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 80%, Nmax = 66,708,594
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.365
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 13.5 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 9,004
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 108.6128
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 9,078
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 79 (13-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 79 (13-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 36 days
Duration of the outbreak : 294 days until 14-Nov-2020
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 9,012
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 9,012
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 19-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 31-Mar-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 19-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 31-Mar-2020
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