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COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option c (France) : 14-Jul-2020
---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_France.mat
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Country : France
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 19-Feb-2020
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---> Last available day in database : 14-Jul-2020
---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 146 of the outbreak)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 2%) : qc_0 : 0.6, qc_inf : 0.057, tau_ref : 22, Dtau : 10
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Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.91751
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Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 3.84
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 74%, Nmax = 49,552,083
Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.365
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 1.9 (%)
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Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 29,665
Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 442.7612
Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 30,015
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Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 48 (07-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 48 (07-Apr-2020)
Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 26 days
Duration of the outbreak : 270 days until 15-Nov-2020
Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 19,311
Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 29,704
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 12-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 22-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 13-Apr-2020
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Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 12-Mar-2020
Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 22-Mar-2020
Threashold 10000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 06-Apr-2020
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Number of days to reach the end of the lockdown (11-May-2020) : -65
Number of daily contaminations (11-May-2020) : 6005
Number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 120
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