****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 15-Jul-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option c (China) : 15-Jul-2020 ---> Read parameters from file : params_autoscan_3_c_China.mat ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : China Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 12-Jan-2020 --------- ---> Last available day in database : 15-Jul-2020 ---> Today : 15-Jul-2020 (day 185 of the outbreak) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Initial simulations parameters (High fatality rate scenario : 4%) : qc_0 : 1.2, qc_inf : 0.05, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 8 --------- Agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.91628 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.68 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 1,205,531,250 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.32 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 0 (%) --------- Total number of deaths (estimated) today (with offset) : 4,760 Mortality (per million inhabitants) : 3.4343 Total number of deaths (observed) today (with offset) : 4,634 --------- Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak : 30 (11-Feb-2020) Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak by quarantine (numerical) : 30 (11-Feb-2020) Number of days to reach the outbreak peak from the onset of the quarantine by quarantine (numerical) : 28 days Duration of the outbreak : 176 days until 06-Jul-2020 Total number of deaths estimated (without offset) : 3,470 Total number of deaths estimated (with offset) : 4,760 --------- Threashold 100 deaths estimated (without offset) : 27-Jan-2020 Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (without offset) : 08-Feb-2020 --------- Threashold 100 deaths estimated (with offset) : 27-Jan-2020 Threashold 1000 deaths estimated (with offset) : 08-Feb-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************