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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (USA day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 14-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : USA
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 14-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #364)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #365)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.75, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 14, Dtau : 2
From day #30 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 40, Dtau : 7
From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.106, qc_inf : 0.073, tau_ref : 175, Dtau : 10
From day #230 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #265 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 305, Dtau : 10
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.64015
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 290,666,667
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 55.6 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 402,883
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 380,670
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,232
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (14-Jan-2020) : 94 (17-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 2294
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 07-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 494,888
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 16-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 23-Mar-2020 (day #69)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 03-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 09-Apr-2020 (day #86)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 13-Apr-2020 (day #90)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 24-May-2020 (day #131)
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