****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (USA day #0 : 14-Jan-2020) : 12-Aug-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : USA Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 14-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Aug-2020 (day #211) ---> Today : 13-Aug-2020 (day #212) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.28%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.75, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 14, Dtau : 2 From day #30 --> qc_0 : 0.57, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 40, Dtau : 7 From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.1, qc_inf : 0.065, tau_ref : 200, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.68946 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.75 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 293,461,538 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 0.959 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 22.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 163,034 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 166,026 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 499 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (14-Jan-2020) : 94 (17-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 2294 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 19-Nov-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 249,506 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 16-Mar-2020 (day #62) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 23-Mar-2020 (day #69) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 03-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 09-Apr-2020 (day #86) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 13-Apr-2020 (day #90) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 24-May-2020 (day #131) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************