****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Oct-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (UK day #0 : 28-Dec-2019) : 29-Oct-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : UK Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 28-Dec-2019 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 29-Oct-2020 (day #306) ---> Today : 30-Oct-2020 (day #307) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.3%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.75, qc_inf : 0.01, tau_ref : 4, Dtau : 1 From day #30 --> qc_0 : 0.55, qc_inf : 0.068, tau_ref : 58, Dtau : 7 From day #210 --> qc_0 : 0.087, qc_inf : 0.087, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 From day #230 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.11, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.31421 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 59,466,667 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.32 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 32.5 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 53,626 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 45,955 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 802 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (28-Dec-2019) : 35 (01-Feb-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 0 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (23-Mar-2020) : -51 (01-Feb-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 02-Dec-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) (without offset) : 69,419 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) (with offset) : 73,419 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 17-Mar-2020 (day #80) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #89) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 11-Apr-2020 (day #105) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 24-Apr-2020 (day #118) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 12-May-2020 (day #136) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 17-Mar-2020 (day #80) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 26-Mar-2020 (day #89) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 11-Apr-2020 (day #105) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 24-Apr-2020 (day #118) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 04-May-2020 (day #128) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (11-May-2020) : #135 Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 64406 Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 464 Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 210 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 29391 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 28065 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************