****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 24-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Turkey day #0 : 05-Feb-2020) : 23-Nov-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Turkey Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 05-Feb-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #292) ---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #293) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.175%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 1.08, qc_inf : 0.05, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 11 From day #71 --> qc_0 : 0.05, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 71, Dtau : 11 From day #170 --> qc_0 : 0.145, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 170, Dtau : 11 From day #250 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.14, tau_ref : 253, Dtau : 8 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.95031 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 12.96 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 92%, Nmax = 77,518,519 Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.671 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 19.6 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 12,039 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 12,511 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 143 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (05-Feb-2020) : 73 (18-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 119 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 09-Feb-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) : 1,152,249 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 28-Mar-2020 (day #52) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 30-Oct-2020 (day #268) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Dec-2020 (day #314) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-Dec-2020 (day #322) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 10-Jan-2021 (day #340) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** sqrt(1000)/1000 ans = 0.0316 1000/0.003 ans = 3.3333e+05 outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 : 14-Jan-2020) : 23-Nov-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : France Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 14-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #314) ---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #315) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 38, Dtau : 9 From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.109, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 4 From day #245 --> qc_0 : 0.112, qc_inf : 0.067, tau_ref : 280, Dtau : 2 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.79496 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.28 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 54,310,606 Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.804 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 19 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 50,376 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 49,232 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 752 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (14-Jan-2020) : 88 (11-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 489 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 26 (11-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 18-Jan-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) (without offset) : 44,820 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) (with offset) : 60,787 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 15-Apr-2020 (day #92) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 04-Aug-2020 (day #203) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #85) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 20-Apr-2020 (day #97) --------- Day of the end of the first lockdown (11-May-2020) : #118 Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 7245 Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 138 Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 17005 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 : 14-Jan-2020) : 24-Nov-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : France Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 14-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 24-Nov-2020 (day #315) ---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #316) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 38, Dtau : 9 From day #120 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.08, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 2 From day #195 --> qc_0 : 0.109, qc_inf : 0.07, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 4 From day #245 --> qc_0 : 0.112, qc_inf : 0.067, tau_ref : 280, Dtau : 2 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.79756 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.28 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 54,310,606 Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.804 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 19.1 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 51,316 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 50,237 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 766 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (14-Jan-2020) : 88 (11-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 489 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 26 (11-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 18-Jan-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) (without offset) : 44,820 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) (with offset) : 61,338 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 15-Apr-2020 (day #92) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 04-Aug-2020 (day #203) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 13-Mar-2020 (day #59) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 24-Mar-2020 (day #70) Threashold 10000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #85) Threashold 20000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 20-Apr-2020 (day #97) --------- Day of the end of the first lockdown (11-May-2020) : #118 Estimated number of daily infections (11-May-2020) : 7245 Estimated number of daily deaths (11-May-2020) : 138 Observed number of daily fatalities (11-May-2020) : 178 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 17005 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (11-May-2020) : 16994 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (France day #0 : 14-Jan-2020) : 24-Nov-2020 3961 if ij > thospi if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbstep; end nc_num nc_num = 1.0e+04 * Columns 1 through 18 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.0004 0.0006 0.0009 0.0013 0.0018 0.0026 0.0037 0.0053 0.0076 0.0108 0.0153 0.0217 0.0307 0.0433 Columns 19 through 36 0.0610 0.0856 0.1199 0.1672 0.2323 0.3215 0.4431 0.6076 0.8291 1.1251 1.5180 2.0353 2.7111 3.5863 4.6829 0 0 0 Columns 37 through 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 55 through 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 73 through 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 91 through 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 109 through 126 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 127 through 144 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 145 through 162 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 163 through 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 181 through 198 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 199 through 216 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 217 through 234 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 235 through 252 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 253 through 270 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 271 through 288 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 289 through 306 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 307 through 324 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 325 through 342 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 343 through 360 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 361 through 378 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Columns 379 through 380 0 0 dbquit covid19 ans = 1 --> Last recorded date : 23-Nov-2020 Download lastest database ? (0 or RETURN no, 1 yes) 1 COVID-19 database succesfully updated Which day is displayed : 0 or RETURN -> last day, n ->day n before last day, [0:m] -> m days from day 0) Write automatically data in file ? (0 or RETURN no, 1 yes) 1 *************************************************************************** ******************************* COVID-19 ********************************** *************************************************************************** Turkey : --------------- nr(516-i0) = 460916 + 12672*1i;%11/24/20, Turkey Russia : --------------- nr(516-i0) = 2120836 + 36675*1i;%11/24/20, Russia Arizona : --------------- nr(518-i0) = 306868 + 6515*1i;%11/24/20, Arizona Florida : --------------- nr(518-i0) = 244251 + 4190*1i;%11/24/20, Florida California : --------------- nr(518-i0) = 163010 + 2279*1i;%11/24/20, California Mexico : --------------- nr(408-i0) = 1060152 + 102739*1i;%11/24/20, Mexico India : --------------- nr(408-i0) = 9222216 + 134699*1i;%11/24/20, India Brazil : --------------- nr(408-i0) = 6118708 + 170115*1i;%11/24/20, Brazil Belgium : --------------- nr(507-i0) = 561803 + 15938*1i;nv(507-i0) = NaN;%11/24/20, Belgium Poland : --------------- nr(507-i0) = 909066 + 14314*1i;nv(507-i0) = NaN;%11/24/20, Poland Senegal : --------------- nr(200-i0) = 15908 + 331*1i;%11/24/20, Senegal Lebanon : --------------- nr(381-i0) = 118705 + 934*1i;%11/24/20, Lebanon Netherlands : --------------- nr(381-i0) = 493744 + 9035*1i;nv(381-i0) = NaN;%11/24/20, Netherlands United Kingdom : --------------- nr(507-i0) = 1538794 + 55838*1i;%11/24/20, United Kingdom Quebec (Canada) : --------------- nr(289-i0) = 134330 + 6887*1i;nv(289-i0) = NaN;%11/24/20, Quebec France : --------------- nr(382-i0) = 2154097 + 49902*1i;%11/24/20, France Switzerland : --------------- nr(281-i0) = 304593 + 4308*1i;nv(281-i0) = NaN;%11/24/20, switzerland Germany : --------------- nr(507-i0) = 963192 + 14832*1i;%11/24/20, Germany Sweden : --------------- nr(384-i0) = 225560 + 6500*1i;nv(384-i0) = NaN;%11/24/20, Sweden Iran : --------------- nr(385-i0) = 880542 + 45738*1i;%11/24/20, Iran Italy : --------------- nr(310-i0) = 1455022 + 51306*1i;nv(310-i0) = NaN;%11/24/20, Italy Spain : --------------- nr(296-i0) = 1594844 + 43668*1i;%11/24/20, Spain China : --------------- nr(411-i0) = 86469 + 4634*1i;%11/24/20, China South-Korea : --------------- nr(406-i0) = 31735 + 513*1i;%11/24/20, South-Korea USA : --------------- nr(286-i0) = 12591163 + 259925*1i;%11/24/20, USA *************************************************************************** Mean global fatality rate (no Iran, no Italy, no France) : 50.2% Doubling time for cumulative number of deaths : 2.48±0.76 days outbreak0 ---> Data last day, option f (Quebec day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 24-Nov-2020 3970 if ij > trea if system_dependent('IsDebugMode')==1, dbcont; end ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Quebec Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 24-Nov-2020 (day #303) ---> Today : 25-Nov-2020 (day #304) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.3%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.35, qc_inf : 0.073, tau_ref : 40, Dtau : 10 From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.073, qc_inf : 0.047, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 3 From day #155 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.03, tau_ref : 185, Dtau : 10 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 3 From day #265 --> qc_0 : 0.1, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 290, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.74063 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.2 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 76%, Nmax = 6,476,190 Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.9 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 32.9 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 7,419 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 6,887 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 873 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 100 (05-May-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 96 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 30-Jan-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) (without offset) : 9,315 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) (with offset) : 9,405 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 22-Apr-2020 (day #87) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 21-Apr-2020 (day #86) ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** exit