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COVID-19 simulation of the 24-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Switzerland day #0 : 25-Jan-2020) : 23-Nov-2020
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Country : Switzerland
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 25-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #303)
---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #304)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.044, tau_ref : 20, Dtau : 9
From day #119 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 170, Dtau : 20
From day #229 --> qc_0 : 0.141, qc_inf : 0.065, tau_ref : 265, Dtau : 10
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.73348
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.8
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 7,323,077
Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.801
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 22.9 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 4,063
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 4,222
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 484
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (25-Jan-2020) : 72 (06-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 62
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 21 (06-Apr-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 29-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) (without offset) : 7,300
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) (with offset) : 7,094
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 21-Mar-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #74)
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 21-Mar-2020 (day #56)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 08-Apr-2020 (day #74)
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Day of the end of the first lockdown (27-Apr-2020) : #93
Estimated number of daily infections (27-Apr-2020) : 527
Estimated number of daily deaths (27-Apr-2020) : 22
Observed number of daily fatalities (27-Apr-2020) : 55
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (27-Apr-2020) : 1730
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (27-Apr-2020) : 1665
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