******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Switzerland day #0 (tau_f = 20 days) : 04-Feb-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Switzerland
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 04-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #343)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #344)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.044, tau_ref : 20, Dtau : 9
From day #119 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 170, Dtau : 20
From day #225 --> qc_0 : 0.141, qc_inf : 0.065, tau_ref : 265, Dtau : 10
From day #295 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.085, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.67887
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.8
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 7,323,077
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.02
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 34.6 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 7,833
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 8,470
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 932
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (04-Feb-2020) : 62 (06-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 58
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 21 (06-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 28-Feb-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 11,840
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 11,634
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 21-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #65)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 21-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #65)
---------
Day of the end of the first lockdown (27-Apr-2020) : #83
Estimated number of daily infections (27-Apr-2020) : 1157
Estimated number of daily deaths (27-Apr-2020) : 21
Observed number of daily fatalities (27-Apr-2020) : 55
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (27-Apr-2020) : 1640
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (27-Apr-2020) : 1665
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Switzerland day #0 (tau_f = 20 days) : 04-Feb-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************
Country : Switzerland
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 04-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #343)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #344)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.65, qc_inf : 0.044, tau_ref : 20, Dtau : 9
From day #119 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 170, Dtau : 20
From day #225 --> qc_0 : 0.142, qc_inf : 0.065, tau_ref : 265, Dtau : 10
From day #295 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.082, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
---------
Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.68443
---------
Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.8
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 7,323,077
Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.984
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 34.2 (%)
---------
Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 7,957
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 8,470
---------
Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 947
---------
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (04-Feb-2020) : 62 (06-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 58
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (16-Mar-2020) : 21 (06-Apr-2020)
---------
Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 28-Feb-2021
---------
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 11,147
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 10,941
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 21-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #65)
---------
Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 21-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 09-Apr-2020 (day #65)
---------
Day of the end of the first lockdown (27-Apr-2020) : #83
Estimated number of daily infections (27-Apr-2020) : 1157
Estimated number of daily deaths (27-Apr-2020) : 21
Observed number of daily fatalities (27-Apr-2020) : 55
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (27-Apr-2020) : 1640
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (27-Apr-2020) : 1665
******************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************