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COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Oct-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Sweden day #0 : 31-Jan-2020) : 29-Oct-2020
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Country : Sweden
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 31-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 29-Oct-2020 (day #272)
---> Today : 30-Oct-2020 (day #273)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.32%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.7, qc_inf : 0.066, tau_ref : 10, Dtau : 12
From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 15, Dtau : 25
From day #180 --> qc_0 : 0.084, qc_inf : 0.084, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #216 --> qc_0 : 0.11, qc_inf : 0.11, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.54964
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.4
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 88%, Nmax = 8,809,524
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.32
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.7 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 6,418
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 5,934
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 642
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (31-Jan-2020) : 85 (25-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 89
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 05-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 14,713
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 29-Mar-2020 (day #58)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 18-Dec-2020 (day #322)
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