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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Sweden day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 30-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : Sweden
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 30-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #348)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #349)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.32%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.84, qc_inf : 0.064, tau_ref : 10, Dtau : 10
From day #90 --> qc_0 : 0.078, qc_inf : 0.055, tau_ref : 118, Dtau : 7
From day #155 --> qc_0 : 0.083, qc_inf : 0.083, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #223 --> qc_0 : 0.115, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 280, Dtau : 3
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.41982
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.08
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 9,007,937
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.08
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 45 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 10,550
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 9,667
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,055
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (30-Jan-2020) : 77 (16-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 106
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 23-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 16,405
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 23-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 08-Apr-2020 (day #69)
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