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COVID-19 simulation of the 16-Sep-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 15-Sep-2020
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Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 15-Sep-2020 (day #233)
---> Today : 16-Sep-2020 (day #234)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #140 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 180, Dtau : 10
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.61957
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.302
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 23.3 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 30,413
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 30,004
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 653
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 310 days until 01-Dec-2020
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #310) : 63,624
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 11-Sep-2020 (day #229)
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Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23682
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
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