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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 (tau_f = 20 days) : 04-Feb-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 04-Feb-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #343)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #344)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.131, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 205, Dtau : 5
From day #240 --> qc_0 : 0.1, qc_inf : 0.067, tau_ref : 275, Dtau : 5
From day #300 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.091, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.4899
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.96
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 41,921,285
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.092
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 41.1 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 56,718
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 52,683
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,217
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (04-Feb-2020) : 56 (31-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 873
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 16 (31-Mar-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 28-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 75,431
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 11-Mar-2020 (day #36)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 18-Mar-2020 (day #43)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 31-Mar-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 18-Sep-2020 (day #227)
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Day of the end of the first lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #82
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 21765
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 250
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23511
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Spain day #0 (tau_f = 20 days) : 04-Feb-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : Spain
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 04-Feb-2020 (day #0)
---------
---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #343)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #344)
---------
Manual parameter determination.
---------
Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5
From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.131, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 205, Dtau : 5
From day #240 --> qc_0 : 0.1, qc_inf : 0.067, tau_ref : 275, Dtau : 5
From day #300 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.091, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
From day #327 --> qc_0 : 0.13, qc_inf : 0.13, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.48997
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 9.96
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 90%, Nmax = 41,921,285
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.56
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 45.1 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 56,735
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 52,683
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,217
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (04-Feb-2020) : 56 (31-Mar-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 873
Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 16 (31-Mar-2020)
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 28-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 171,401
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 11-Mar-2020 (day #36)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 18-Mar-2020 (day #43)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 31-Mar-2020 (day #56)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 18-Sep-2020 (day #227)
Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 15-Feb-2021 (day #377)
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Day of the end of the first lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #82
Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 21765
Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 250
Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288
Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23511
Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (26-Apr-2020) : 23190
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