****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Spain) : 01-Aug-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 01-Aug-2020 (day #187) ---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #188) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.12, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.60347 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.56 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.5 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,032 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 28,445 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 602 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 66 (02-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 18 (02-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 270 days until 23-Oct-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #270) : 96,416 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 13-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 20-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 02-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 16-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 24-Sep-2020 (day #241) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #90 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 14025 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 291 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 378 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 01-Aug-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Spain) : 31-Jul-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Spain Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 31-Jul-2020 (day #187) ---> Today : 01-Aug-2020 (day #188) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.33%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.83, qc_inf : 0.054, tau_ref : 23, Dtau : 5 From day #145 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.12, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 2 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.60347 --------- Estimated initial basic reproduction number (R0) : 10.79 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 91%, Nmax = 42,281,186 Actual estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 1.56 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 18.5 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 28,032 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 28,445 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 602 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 66 (01-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 889 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (15-Mar-2020) : 17 (01-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 270 days until 22-Oct-2020 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #270) : 96,416 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 12-Mar-2020 (day #46) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 19-Mar-2020 (day #53) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 15-Apr-2020 (day #80) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 23-Sep-2020 (day #241) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (26-Apr-2020) : #91 Estimated number of daily infections (26-Apr-2020) : 13190 Estimated number of daily deaths (26-Apr-2020) : 274 Observed number of daily fatalities (26-Apr-2020) : 288 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************