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COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Oct-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPauloCity day #0 : 27-Jan-2020) : 28-Oct-2020
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Country : SaoPauloCity
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 27-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 28-Oct-2020 (day #275)
---> Today : 30-Oct-2020 (day #276)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.73, qc_inf : 0.077, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 14
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.24103
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 8.76
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 89%, Nmax = 10,452,968
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.924
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 94.7 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 20,494
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 20,302
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,737
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (27-Jan-2020) : 104 (10-May-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 178
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 01-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 21,823
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #59)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #75)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 07-Jun-2020 (day #132)
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