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COVID-19 simulation of the 24-Nov-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPauloCity day #0 : 26-Jan-2020) : 23-Nov-2020
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Country : SaoPauloCity
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 23-Nov-2020 (day #302)
---> Today : 24-Nov-2020 (day #303)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.665, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.25779
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.98
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 10,321,303
Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.9
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 93.8 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 20,724
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 20,923
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,756
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 107 (12-May-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 198
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 370 days until 30-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #370) : 21,253
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 27-Mar-2020 (day #61)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 13-Apr-2020 (day #78)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 03-Jun-2020 (day #129)
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