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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPauloCity day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 23-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : SaoPauloCity
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 23-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #355)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #356)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.21%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.616, qc_inf : 0.075, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 17
From day #255 --> qc_0 : 0.097, qc_inf : 0.077, tau_ref : 310, Dtau : 5
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.27474
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.392
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 86%, Nmax = 11,224,048
Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.924
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 90.7 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 23,312
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 23,612
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,796
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (23-Jan-2020) : 111 (13-May-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 193
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 16-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 24,912
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 26-Mar-2020 (day #63)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 12-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 04-Jun-2020 (day #133)
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