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COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Oct-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 : 28-Jan-2020) : 27-Oct-2020
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Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 28-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 27-Oct-2020 (day #273)
---> Today : 30-Oct-2020 (day #274)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.64, qc_inf : 0.0825, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 16
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.24537
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 7.68
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 87%, Nmax = 38,792,708
EFfective reproduction number (R) : 0.99
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 63.2 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 46,736
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 39,153
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,048
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (28-Jan-2020) : 148 (24-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 261
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 02-Jan-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 61,699
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 30-Mar-2020 (day #62)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 17-Apr-2020 (day #80)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 01-Jun-2020 (day #125)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 10-Jul-2020 (day #164)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 18-Aug-2020 (day #203)
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