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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (SaoPaulo day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 23-Jan-2020) : 11-Jan-2021
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Country : SaoPaulo
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 23-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 11-Jan-2021 (day #354)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #355)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.19%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.488, qc_inf : 0.08027, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 21
From day #285 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.09, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.3091
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.856
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 36,983,880
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1.08
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 70.7 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 52,266
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 48,413
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,172
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (23-Jan-2020) : 147 (18-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 267
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 16-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 61,818
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 01-Apr-2020 (day #69)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 21-Apr-2020 (day #89)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 06-Jun-2020 (day #135)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 14-Jul-2020 (day #173)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 27-Aug-2020 (day #217)
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