****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Russia day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 31-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Russia Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 31-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #347) ---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #348) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.265%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.076, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 23 From day #180 --> qc_0 : 0.076, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 23 From day #247 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.077, tau_ref : 300, Dtau : 10 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.92901 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.28 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 1,096,750,000 Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.925 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 2 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 60,934 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 61,908 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 45 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (31-Jan-2020) : 134 (13-Jun-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 197 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 24-Feb-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 76,817 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #71) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-May-2020 (day #92) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 25-Jun-2020 (day #146) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 05-Sep-2020 (day #218) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 02-Nov-2020 (day #276) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************