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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Russia day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 31-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : Russia
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 31-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #347)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #348)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.265%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.44, qc_inf : 0.076, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 23
From day #180 --> qc_0 : 0.076, qc_inf : 0.1, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 23
From day #247 --> qc_0 : 0.09, qc_inf : 0.077, tau_ref : 300, Dtau : 10
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.92901
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 5.28
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 81%, Nmax = 1,096,750,000
Effective reproduction number (R) : 0.925
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 2 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 60,934
Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 61,908
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 45
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (31-Jan-2020) : 134 (13-Jun-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 197
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 24-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) : 76,817
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 11-Apr-2020 (day #71)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 02-May-2020 (day #92)
Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 25-Jun-2020 (day #146)
Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 05-Sep-2020 (day #218)
Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 02-Nov-2020 (day #276)
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