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COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr)
---> Data last day, option f (Quebec day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 26-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021
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Country : Quebec
Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0)
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---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #352)
---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #353)
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Manual parameter determination.
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Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.3%) : 
From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.35, qc_inf : 0.073, tau_ref : 40, Dtau : 10
From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.073, qc_inf : 0.047, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 3
From day #155 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.03, tau_ref : 185, Dtau : 10
From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.118, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 3
From day #265 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.092, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 1
From day #340 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1
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Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.71606
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Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.2
Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 76%, Nmax = 6,476,190
Effective reproduction number (R) : 1
Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 48.3 (%)
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Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 9,881
Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 8,782
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Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,163
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Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 100 (05-May-2020)
Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 96
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Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 19-Feb-2021
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Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 13,042
Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 13,132
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69)
Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 22-Apr-2020 (day #87)
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Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69)
Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 21-Apr-2020 (day #86)
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