****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 13-Jan-2021, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Quebec day #0 (tau_f = 30 days) : 26-Jan-2020) : 12-Jan-2021 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Quebec Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 26-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 12-Jan-2021 (day #352) ---> Today : 13-Jan-2021 (day #353) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (infection fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.3%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.35, qc_inf : 0.073, tau_ref : 40, Dtau : 10 From day #110 --> qc_0 : 0.073, qc_inf : 0.047, tau_ref : 2, Dtau : 3 From day #155 --> qc_0 : 0.12, qc_inf : 0.03, tau_ref : 185, Dtau : 10 From day #200 --> qc_0 : 0.118, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 240, Dtau : 3 From day #265 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.092, tau_ref : 3, Dtau : 1 From day #340 --> qc_0 : 0.0833, qc_inf : 0.0833, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.71606 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 4.2 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 76%, Nmax = 6,476,190 Effective reproduction number (R) : 1 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 48.3 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today (with offset) : 9,881 Total number of fatalities (observed) today (with offset) : 8,782 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 1,163 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (26-Jan-2020) : 100 (05-May-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 96 --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 390 days until 19-Feb-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (without offset) : 13,042 Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #390) (with offset) : 13,132 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated (without offset) : 22-Apr-2020 (day #87) --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 04-Apr-2020 (day #69) Threashold 1000 fatalities estimated (with offset) : 21-Apr-2020 (day #86) ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************