****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** COVID-19 simulation of the 30-Oct-2020, Yves Peysson (more details -> www.yvespeysson.fr) ---> Data last day, option f (Poland day #0 : 31-Jan-2020) : 29-Oct-2020 ****************************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************************** Country : Poland Beginning of the outbreak (reference day of calculations) : 31-Jan-2020 (day #0) --------- ---> Last available day in database : 29-Oct-2020 (day #272) ---> Today : 30-Oct-2020 (day #273) --------- Manual parameter determination. --------- Simulations parameters (case fatality rate from Diamond-Princess cruise liner analysis : 0.3%) : From day #1 --> qc_0 : 0.5, qc_inf : 0.074, tau_ref : 21, Dtau : 10 From day #150 --> qc_0 : 0.105, qc_inf : 0.068, tau_ref : 185, Dtau : 7 From day #208 --> qc_0 : 0.135, qc_inf : 0.135, tau_ref : 1, Dtau : 1 --------- Global agreement between modeling and observations R-squares (coefficient of determination 0 < R2 < 1, the largest is the best) : 0.79901 --------- Estimated basic reproduction number (R0) : 6 Fraction of population that must be immunited (natural or vaccine) to stop the outbreak : 83%, Nmax = 31,666,667 EFfective reproduction number (R) : 1.62 Actual fraction of population that is naturally immunised : 30.4 (%) --------- Total number of fatalities (estimated) today : 5,160 Total number of fatalities (observed) today : 5,149 --------- Estimated mortality (per million inhabitants) : 136 --------- Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of the outbreak (31-Jan-2020) : 88 (28-Apr-2020) Number of daily fatalities at the first wave outbreak peak : 22 Number of days to reach the first wave outbreak peak from the beginning of lockdown (12-Mar-2020) : 47 (28-Apr-2020) --------- Estimated duration of the outbreak : 340 days until 05-Jan-2021 --------- Total number of fatalities estimated at the end of the outbreak (day #340) : 688,139 --------- Threshold 100 fatalities estimated : 06-Apr-2020 (day #66) Threshold 1000 fatalities estimated : 22-May-2020 (day #112) Threshold 10000 fatalities estimated : 10-Nov-2020 (day #284) Threshold 20000 fatalities estimated : 20-Nov-2020 (day #294) Threashold 30000 fatalities estimated : 26-Nov-2020 (day #300) Threshold 100000 fatalities estimated : 11-Dec-2020 (day #315) --------- Day of the end of the lockdown (27-Apr-2020) : #87 Estimated number of daily infections (27-Apr-2020) : 5346 Estimated number of daily deaths (27-Apr-2020) : 22 Observed number of daily fatalities (27-Apr-2020) : 27 Estimated cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (27-Apr-2020) : 485 Observed cumulative number of fatalities at hospital (27-Apr-2020) : 562 ****************************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************************